Market Review
Over the past month, there has been a flood of monetary and fiscal programs enacted and proposed globally. The focus has been on mitigating the damage to individuals and businesses (and supporting a faster recovery once economic factors and markets stabilize), while trying to facilitate some form of functioning capital markets.
Read moreThere has been significant turmoil year-to-date in the financial markets as fear rises over the spreading COVID-19 and its uncertain impact on global economic growth. Equities have fallen at an unprecedented rate, erasing $20 trillion in global wealth over the past three weeks, while U.S. Treasuries have rallied dramatically. Ten-year yields have fallen to record lows (at one point this month hitting 0.32% intraday). Within the bond market, all “risk” has sold off, including corporates, securitized product, and high yield bonds. Until last week, bond market trading remained orderly with only pockets of illiquidity. That changed last Thursday as trading costs of even the current and off-the-run (older issues) U.S. Treasuries rose and have continued to rise at the start of this week.
Read moreThe tide turned on interest rates in the fourth quarter of 2019. The 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield reached a low for the year in September, hitting 1.46%. In October, the Federal Reserve cut rates for the final time in 2019. The market responded by taking a more measured view over future rate moves, with many if not most participants believing that the Fed will be on hold in 2020.
Read moreRates rose as the month began, only to move back as the month progressed. Ultimately, the yield curve had a modest “bearish flattening” for the month with 2-year Treasury yields rising 9 basis points (bps), while 30-year yields increased by only 2 bps. The 2- to 10-year yield spread was virtually unchanged.
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